' ' ============================================================================ ' MALAYSIA QUARTERLY MACROECONOMIC MODEL ' ============================================================================ ' Adapted from UK OBR/HMT model for the Malaysian economy ' Calibrated using BNM working papers, DOSM national accounts, ' IMF Article IV estimates, and published Malaysian macro studies ' ' Base year: 2015 (Malaysia GDP rebasing year) ' Frequency: Quarterly ' Currency: Ringgit Malaysia (RM), millions unless otherwise stated ' ' Variable naming conventions: ' P prefix = price deflator (index, 2015=100) ' R prefix = interest rate (percent per annum) ' d() = first difference operator ' dlog() = log first difference (approx. growth rate) ' (-n) = lag n quarters ' @recode = dummy variable constructor ' @elem = value at specific date ' @TREND = time trend ' @ADD(V) = add-factor adjustment ' ============================================================================ ' ' Group 1: Private Consumption ' ' Error-correction consumption function for Malaysia ' Long-run: consumption driven by real disposable income, wealth, and credit conditions ' Short-run: income growth, interest rates, consumer confidence ' Coefficients calibrated from BNM Working Papers and IMF estimates ' MPC out of income ~0.55 (long-run), wealth elasticity ~0.08 (housing wealth negative in Malaysia) ' OPR pass-through: 20-30bps per 25bps move dlog(PCONS) = 0.1824 + 0.1385 * dlog(RHHDI) - 0.0072 * d(LFSUR) + 0.0843 * dlog(CREDIT / (PCPI / 100)) - 0.0005 * d(OPR(-1) - (-1 + PCPI / PCPI(-4)) * 100) - 0.1080 * ( log(PCONS(-1)) - 0.5500 * log(RHHDI(-1)) - 0.0800 * log(NFWPE(-1) / (PCPI(-1) / 100)) - 0.1200 * log(CREDIT(-1) / (PCPI(-1) / 100)) ) + 0.0382 * dlog(MCCI) - 0.0350 * ( @recode(@date = @dateval("2008:04") , 1 , 0) - @recode(@date = @dateval("2009:02") , 1 , 0) ) PCONSPS = PCONS * PCPI / 100 ' Durable consumption (vehicles, appliances — important given Malaysia's auto sector) dlog(CDUR) = dlog(PCONS) - 0.5500 * (dlog(PCDUR) - dlog(PCPI)) + 0.3200 * dlog(RHHDI) + 0.2800 * dlog(RHHDI(-1)) - 0.0380 * log(CDUR(-1) / PCONS(-1)) - 0.0120 * log(PCDUR(-1) * ((((1 + OPR(-1) / 100)^0.25) - 1) + ((1.20^0.25) - 1) - d(PCDUR(-1)) / PCDUR(-1)) / 100) + 0.0250 * log(NFWPE(-1) / (PCPI(-1) / 100)) - 0.4800 + 0.0550 * ( @recode(@date = @dateval("2020:02") , 1 , 0) - @recode(@date = @dateval("2020:03") , 1 , 0) ) CDURPS = (PCDUR / 100) * CDUR ' Property prices (important driver in Malaysia — high home ownership ~76%) dlog(PRP) = dlog(EARN) - 0.1050 * log(PRP(-1) / EARN(-1)) + 1.2500 * (dlog(EARN) - dlog(PCPI)) + 0.1800 * ( @recode(@date = @dateval("1998:01") , 1 , 0) - @recode(@date = @dateval("1998:02") , 1 , 0) ) - 0.2200 * ( @recode(@date = @dateval("2020:02") , 1 , 0) - @recode(@date = @dateval("2020:03") , 1 , 0) ) + 0.1680 ' ' Group 2: Inventories ' ' Residual determination (national accounts identity) DINV = (GDPM + IMP - SDE) - GCE - PCONS - VAL - GFCF - EXP INV = INV(-1) + DINV BV = BV(-1) + DINVPS SA = BV(-1) * (PINV / PINV(-1) - 1) ' Inventory deflator (linked to GDP deflator) PDINV = PGDP DINVPS = DINV * PDINV / 100 DINVHH = 0.05 * DINVPS ' Valuables (negligible for Malaysia — gold, precious stones; set proportional to GDP) VAL = 0.001 * GDPM VALPS = VAL * PGDP / 100 ' Alignment adjustment on inventories (typically zero or small) ALAD = 0 ' Government change in inventories (residual from public sector capital account) ' NPAGOV = net purchase of non-produced assets by government ' KGOV = capital transfers by government ' ASSETSA = asset sales adjustment NPAGOV / NPAGOV(-1) = PGDP / PGDP(-1) KGOV / KGOV(-1) = PGDP / PGDP(-1) ASSETSA = 0 DINVGOV = GOVNI - GOVIPS - GOVDEVPS - (NPAGOV) - (KGOV) - ASSETSA + DEP + ASSETSA ' ' Group 3: Investment (Gross Fixed Capital Formation) ' ' Malaysian investment: private ~70%, public ~30% of GFCF ' Higher public investment share than UK reflecting Malaysia's development stage ' Cost of capital framework adapted for Malaysian financial structure ' ' Debt-equity weights for Malaysian firms (Bursa Malaysia data) ' Average debt-to-equity ~0.6, so debt weight ~0.38, equity weight ~0.62 WD = 0.38 WE = 0.62 ' Tax-adjusted factors (Malaysian corporate tax rate 24%) TCORP = 0.24 ' Discount and depreciation RDELTA = 0.025 ' Cost of capital components CDEBT = CDEBT(-1) + d(BLR) CEQUITY = NDIV * (1 + WG) + 100 * WG WG = 0.04 RWACC = WD * CDEBT + WE * CEQUITY ' Cost of capital COCU = PIBUS / PGDP * @elem(PGDP , "2015Q1") / @elem(PIBUS , "2015Q1") * (RDELTA + RWACC) ' Discount rate for tax depreciation (nominal, based on MGS10) DISCO = MGS10 / 100 ' Tax-adjusted cost of capital DB = 1 / (1 + DISCO) * (IIB + (SIB / DISCO) * (1 - (1 + DISCO)^((-1) * (1 - IIB) / (SIB + 0.01)))) TAFB = (1 - TCORP * DB) / (1 - TCORP) COC = TAFB * COCU ' Desired capital stock KSTAR = exp(log(MSGVA) - 0.35 * log(COC) + 2.250) ' Capital accumulation KMSXH = (IBUSX / 1000) + KMSXH(-1) * (1 - RDELTA) KGAP = log(KMSXH * 1000) - log(KSTAR) ' Private business investment (error-correction) ' Investment elasticity to output ~1.0, adjusted for Malaysia's higher investment/GDP ratio (~23%) dlog(IBUSX) = 0.2200 * dlog(IBUSX(-3)) + 1.0500 * dlog(MSGVA(-1)) - 0.0015 * d(BLR) - 0.0450 * (log(IBUSX(-1)) - log(KMSXH(-2) * 1000) + KGAP(-2)) + 0.0650 * @recode(@date = @dateval("1998:01") , 1 , 0) - 0.1200 * @recode(@date = @dateval("1998:03") , 1 , 0) - 0.0750 * ( @recode(@date = @dateval("2008:04") , 1 , 0) - @recode(@date = @dateval("2009:02") , 1 , 0) ) + 0.0800 * ( @recode(@date = @dateval("2020:03") , 1 , 0) - @recode(@date = @dateval("2020:04") , 1 , 0) ) - 0.0750 ' Public enterprise investment (GLCs — Petronas, TNB, Telekom etc.) PUBI / PUBI(-1) = GFCF / GFCF(-1) PUBIPS = PUBI * PIF / 100 ' Total GFCF decomposition IBUS = GFCF - GOVI - PUBI - IH IBUSX = IBUS ' Government investment GOVIPS = GOVDEVPS GOVI = 100 * GOVIPS / GOVIDEF GOVIDEF / GOVIDEF(-1) = PIF / PIF(-1) ' Housing investment (sensitive to BNM macroprudential measures — LTV limits) dlog(IH) = -1.5200 + 0.0380 * d(RMORT) - 0.0820 * dlog(PRP(-1)) - 0.4500 * (log(IH(-1)) - 0.9500 * log(PCONSPS(-1))) - 0.1500 * @recode(@date = @dateval("1998:01") , 1 , 0) + 0.1200 * ( @recode(@date = @dateval("2020:03") , 1 , 0) - @recode(@date = @dateval("2021:01") , 1 , 0) ) ' Investment deflators GFCFPS = GFCF * PIF / 100 IHPS = IH * PIH / 100 PIBUS = 100 * (GFCFPS - IHPS - GOVIPS - PUBIPS) / IBUS ' ' Group 4: The Labour Market ' ' Malaysian labour market: ~16 million employed, participation ~69% ' Large informal sector, significant foreign worker presence (~2 million) ' Minimum wage RM1,500/month (2023) ' Unemployment typically 3.3-3.5% (pre-COVID) ' Government employment (federal + state) EGOV / EGOV(-1) = EGOVLFS / EGOVLFS(-1) ' Market sector employment (error-correction) ' Okun coefficient ~0.4-0.5 for Malaysia dlog(EMS) = -0.0098 + 0.3800 * dlog(EMS(-1)) + 0.2200 * dlog(EMS(-2)) + 0.2050 * dlog(MSGVA(-1)) - 0.0075 * (log(EMS(-1) / MSGVA(-1)) + 0.35 * (log(PSAVEI(-1) / PMSGVA(-1)))) - 0.0250 * ( @recode(@date = @dateval("2009:01") , 1 , 0) - @recode(@date = @dateval("2009:03") , 1 , 0) ) - 0.0850 * @recode(@date = @dateval("2020:02") , 1 , 0) + 0.0420 * @recode(@date = @dateval("2020:04") , 1 , 0) ' Total employment ET = ET(-1) * ETLFS / ETLFS(-1) ETLFS = 1000 * (HWA / AVH) ES / ES(-1) = ET / ET(-1) ESLFS / ESLFS(-1) = ES / ES(-1) ' Population and labour force POP15 / POP15(-1) = (WAP) / (WAP(-1)) ULFS = ((POP15 * PART15 / 100) - ETLFS) LFSUR = 100 * ULFS / (ETLFS + ULFS) ' Productivity @IDENTITY PRODH = GDPM / HWA PART15 = 100 * (ULFS + ETLFS) / POP15 ER = 100 * ETLFS / POP15 ' Foreign workers (important for Malaysia — construction, plantation, manufacturing) dlog(EFOR) = 0.4500 * dlog(MSGVA) - 0.1200 * (log(EFOR(-1)) - 0.6500 * log(MSGVA(-1))) - 0.3500 * @recode(@date = @dateval("2020:02") , 1 , 0) + 0.0080 ' ' Group 5: Exports of Goods & Services ' ' Malaysia: very open economy, trade/GDP ~130% ' Key exports: E&E (~38%), petroleum products (~8%), palm oil (~5%), chemicals, machinery ' Major markets: China, Singapore, US, EU, Japan ' ' Goods exports decomposed: E&E, commodities (oil+palm oil), other manufactures ' Non-commodity non-E&E goods exports XNOG = EXP - XS - XOILGAS - XCPO - XEE dlog(RPRICE) = dlog(PXNOG) + dlog(NEER) - 0.9000 * dlog(WPG) ' E&E exports (largest component — driven by global semiconductor cycle) dlog(XEE) = 0.1500 * dlog(XEE(-1)) + 1.0500 * dlog(WSTD(-1)) - 0.2800 * dlog(REER) - 0.1350 * (log(XEE(-1)) - 1.0500 * log(WSTD(-1)) + 0.2500 * log(REER(-1))) + 0.0350 * @recode(@date = @dateval("2021:01") , 1 , 0) - 0.0650 * @recode(@date = @dateval("2020:02") , 1 , 0) - 0.0850 * ( @recode(@date = @dateval("2008:04") , 1 , 0) - @recode(@date = @dateval("2009:02") , 1 , 0) ) - 0.0280 ' Services exports (tourism is major component — ~6% of GDP pre-COVID) dlog(XS) = 0.3200 * dlog(XS(-1)) + 0.8500 * dlog(WTOUR) - 0.1800 * dlog(REER) - 0.0950 * (log(XS(-1)) - 0.9200 * log(WTOUR(-1)) + 0.1500 * log(REER(-1))) - 0.5500 * @recode(@date = @dateval("2020:02") , 1 , 0) + 0.2500 * @recode(@date = @dateval("2022:02") , 1 , 0) - 0.0180 ' E&E export prices (driven by global tech prices, exchange rate, and domestic PPI) dlog(PXEE) = 0.4500 * dlog(PPI(-1)) + 0.3500 * (dlog(WPG) - dlog(NEER)) - 0.0800 * dlog(REER) - 0.1200 * (log(PXEE(-1)) + 0.2000 * log(REER(-1)) - 0.5500 * log(PPI(-1)) - (1 - 0.5500) * log(WPG(-1) / NEER(-1))) + 0.1800 - 0.0006 * @TREND(2000Q1) ' Total export value EXPPS = (PXNOG / 100) * XNOG + (PXS / 100) * XS + (PXOILGAS / 100) * XOILGAS + (PXCPO / 100) * XCPO + (PXEE / 100) * XEE ' ' Group 6: Imports of Goods & Services ' ' Malaysia: high import content due to GVC integration (especially E&E) ' Import content coefficients estimated from DOSM Input-Output tables (2015) ' Intermediate imports ~60% of total imports MC = 0.220 * PCONS MCGOV = 0.080 * GCE MGFCF = 0.300 * GFCF MDINV = 0.100 * (DINV - ALAD) MXS = 0.120 * XS MXG = 0.520 * (XOILGAS + XCPO + XNOG) ' E&E import content adjusted to ~52% (DOSM IO 2015; 65% was too high) MXE = 0.520 * XEE MTFE = MC + MCGOV + MGFCF + MDINV + MXS + MXG + MXE MINTY = 100 * IMP / MTFE ' Import demand — non-oil goods (error-correction) MGTFE = 0.150 * PCONS + 0.050 * GCE + 0.220 * GFCF + 0.080 * DINV + 0.450 * XNOG + 0.040 * XS + 0.600 * XEE PMGREL = PMNOG / (0.130 * PCPI + 0.080 * GOVCDEF + 0.250 * PIF + 0.090 * PINV + 0.320 * PXNOG + 0.050 * PXS + 0.080 * PXEE) ' Non-oil goods imports MNOG = IMP - MS - MOIL ' Services imports MSTFE = 0.070 * PCONS + 0.025 * GCE + 0.050 * GFCF + 0.010 * DINV + 0.025 * XNOG + 0.080 * XS PMSREL = PMS / (0.055 * PCPI + 0.035 * GOVCDEF + 0.060 * PIF + 0.035 * PINV + 0.020 * PXNOG + 0.085 * PXS) dlog(MS) = 0.7500 * dlog(MSTFE) + 0.3500 * dlog(MSTFE(-1)) - 0.4800 * dlog(MSTFE(-2)) + 0.2500 * dlog(MSTFE(-3)) - 0.4200 * dlog(PMSREL) - 0.2500 * dlog(PMSREL(-1)) - 0.2400 * dlog(MS(-1)) - 0.1550 * (log(MS(-1)) - 1.0200 * log(MSTFE(-1)) + 0.7800 * log(PMSREL(-1))) - 0.0280 IMPPS = MNOG * (PMNOG / 100) + MS * (PMS / 100) + MOIL * (PMOIL / 100) ' ' Group 7: Prices and Wages ' ' Malaysia: administered price regime for RON95 petrol, diesel, cooking oil, flour, sugar ' Current baseline: BUDI95 targeted RON95 subsidy. Eligible households/farmers receive subsidised ' petrol up to quota, while non-eligible consumption pays the floating market price. In reduced-form ' implementation this means administered fuel prices should be treated as a weighted consumer price, ' not a universal blanket pump price. ' CPI basket has large food weight (~30%) and transport (~14.5%) ' Core inflation typically 1.5-2.5% ' Import price pass-through: 0.3-0.5 in short run ' Wage growth linked to productivity through minimum wage revisions ' Base year values (2015) OILBASE = ((@elem(PBRENT , "2015Q1") / @elem(NEER , "2015Q1")) + (@elem(PBRENT , "2015Q2") / @elem(NEER , "2015Q2")) + (@elem(PBRENT , "2015Q3") / @elem(NEER , "2015Q3")) + (@elem(PBRENT , "2015Q4") / @elem(NEER , "2015Q4"))) / 4 CPOBASE = ((@elem(PCPO , "2015Q1")) + (@elem(PCPO , "2015Q2")) + (@elem(PCPO , "2015Q3")) + (@elem(PCPO , "2015Q4"))) / 4 ' Wages: error-correction with productivity, prices, and unemployment ' Phillips curve for Malaysia — weaker than advanced economies due to structural factors dlog(PSAVEI) = -0.0220 + 0.5200 * dlog(PMSGVA) + 0.2800 * dlog(PMSGVA(-1)) + 0.1200 * dlog(PMSGVA(-2)) + (1 - 0.5200 - 0.2800 - 0.1200) * dlog(PMSGVA(-3)) - 0.0075 * (LFSUR - LFSUR(-1)) + 0.2200 * (dlog(MSGVA) - dlog(EMS)) + 0.2500 * (dlog(CPI) - dlog(PMSGVA)) - 0.0380 * (log(PSAVEI(-1)) - log(MSGVA(-1) / EMS(-1)) - log(PMSGVA(-1)) + log(1 + (EMPSC(-1) / WFP(-1))) + 0.0120 * LFSUR(-1)) + 0.0450 * @recode(@date = @dateval("2013:01") , 1 , 0) + 0.0380 * @recode(@date = @dateval("2023:02") , 1 , 0) ' Earnings and unit labour costs EARN = WFP / (ETLFS - ESLFS) RPW = (FYEMP / PGVA) / (ETLFS - ESLFS) RCW = (FYEMP / PCPI) / (ETLFS - ESLFS) ULCPS = 0.1800 * (PSAVEI * (52 / 4) * (1 + (EMPSC + SOCSO) / WFP) * EMS / GVA) MSGVAPSEMP = MSGVAPS - MI FYEMPMS = FYEMP - GOVWS ULCMS = 100 * 1.6500 * FYEMPMS * (1 + (MI / MSGVAPSEMP)) / MSGVA ' Base values for cost indices ULCPSBASE = ( @elem(ULCPS , "2015Q1") + @elem(ULCPS , "2015Q2") + @elem(ULCPS , "2015Q3") + @elem(ULCPS , "2015Q4") ) / 4 ULCMSBASE = ( @elem(ULCMS , "2015Q1") + @elem(ULCMS , "2015Q2") + @elem(ULCMS , "2015Q3") + @elem(ULCMS , "2015Q4") ) / 4 PMNOGBASE = ( @elem(PMNOG , "2015Q1") + @elem(PMNOG , "2015Q2") + @elem(PMNOG , "2015Q3") + @elem(PMNOG , "2015Q4") ) / 4 PMSBASE = ( @elem(PMS , "2015Q1") + @elem(PMS , "2015Q2") + @elem(PMS , "2015Q3") + @elem(PMS , "2015Q4") ) / 4 PPIBASE = ( @elem(PPI , "2015Q1") + @elem(PPI , "2015Q2") + @elem(PPI , "2015Q3") + @elem(PPI , "2015Q4") ) / 4 CPIBASE = ( @elem(CPIX , "2015Q1") + @elem(CPIX , "2015Q2") + @elem(CPIX , "2015Q3") + @elem(CPIX , "2015Q4") ) / 4 ' Manufacturing cost structure (Input-Output based, adapted for Malaysia) ' Higher import content than UK, lower labour cost share ' ULC ~28%, imported intermediates ~32%, energy/utilities ~8%, other domestic ~32% MCOST = 28.00 * (ULCMS / ULCMSBASE) + 32.00 * (PMNOG / PMNOGBASE) + 3.50 * (PMS / PMSBASE) + 8.00 * ((PBRENT / NEER) / OILBASE) + 3.50 * ((INDIRTAX / GVA) / TXRATEBASE) + 20.00 * (SCOST / 100) + 2.00 * (CCOST / 100) + 3.00 * (UTCOST / 100) ' Services cost structure (higher labour share) SCOST = 62.00 * (ULCMS / ULCMSBASE) + 8.00 * (PMNOG / PMNOGBASE) + 5.50 * (PMS / PMSBASE) + 1.50 * ((PBRENT / NEER) / OILBASE) + 4.00 * ((INDIRTAX / GVA) / TXRATEBASE) + 12.00 * (PPI / PPIBASE) + 4.00 * (CCOST / 100) + 3.00 * (UTCOST / 100) ' Construction cost CCOST = 35.00 * (ULCMS / ULCMSBASE) + 5.00 * (PMNOG / PMNOGBASE) + 1.50 * (PMS / PMSBASE) + 1.00 * ((PBRENT / NEER) / OILBASE) + 2.00 * ((INDIRTAX / GVA) / TXRATEBASE) + 30.00 * (PPI / PPIBASE) + 22.00 * (SCOST / 100) + 3.50 * (UTCOST / 100) ' Utilities cost (fuel-intensive — Malaysia uses gas for power generation) UTCOST = 12.00 * (ULCMS / ULCMSBASE) + 4.00 * (PMNOG / PMNOGBASE) + 1.00 * (PMS / PMSBASE) + 48.00 * ((PBRENT / NEER) / OILBASE) + 3.50 * ((INDIRTAX / GVA) / TXRATEBASE) + 10.00 * (PPI / PPIBASE) + 18.00 * (SCOST / 100) + 3.50 * (CCOST / 100) ' PPI markup MKGW = 100 * ( PPI / (MCOST / 100)) / (PPIBASE) ' CPI excluding administered prices CPIX = (RPCOST / 100) * (MKR / 100) * CPIBASE ' Retail/consumer cost RPCOST = 15.00 * (PMNOG / PMNOGBASE) + 3.50 * (PMS / PMSBASE) + 10.00 * ((INDIRTAX / GVA) / TXRATEBASE) + 8.00 * (PPI / PPIBASE) + 58.00 * (SCOST / 100) + 1.50 * (CCOST / 100) + 4.00 * (UTCOST / 100) ' CPI with administered prices ' W_ADMIN = weight of administered items in CPI ' Pre-GST (before 2015Q2): ~22%; GST period (2015Q2-2018Q2): ~18% (GST broadened base); ' Post-SST (2018Q3+): ~22% (reverted) W_ADMIN = 0.22 - 0.04 * @recode(@date >= @dateval("2015:02") , 1 , 0) * @recode(@date <= @dateval("2018:02") , 1 , 0) CPI = CPI(-1) * (CPIX^(1 - W_ADMIN) * PADMIN^W_ADMIN) / (CPIX(-1)^(1 - W_ADMIN) * PADMIN(-1)^W_ADMIN) ' Administered price index (RON95, diesel, electricity tariff, water) ' Changes reflect policy decisions — subsidy rationalisation programme dlog(PADMIN) = 0.1500 * dlog((PBRENT / NEER) / OILBASE) + 0.0350 * @recode(@date = @dateval("2014:04") , 1 , 0) + 0.0280 * @recode(@date = @dateval("2015:04") , 1 , 0) - 0.0150 * @recode(@date = @dateval("2020:01") , 1 , 0) ' CPI-to-PCE deflator link PCPI / PCPI(-4) = CPI / CPI(-4) ' Export prices dlog(PXNOG) = 0.5800 * dlog(PPI(-1)) + 0.1200 * (dlog(WPG) - dlog(NEER)) - 0.1100 * dlog(REER) - 0.0004 * @TREND(2000Q1) - 0.1450 * (log(PXNOG(-1)) + 0.2800 * log(REER(-1)) - 0.8800 * log(PPI(-1)) - (1 - 0.8800) * log(WPG(-1) / NEER(-1))) + 0.2500 PXS / PXS(-1) = PXNOG / PXNOG(-1) ' Import prices (high pass-through for small open economy) dlog(PMNOG) = 0.5500 * dlog(PPI) + 0.2800 * (dlog(WPG) - dlog(NEER)) - 0.0950 * dlog(REER) - 0.0004 * @TREND(2000Q1) - 0.1450 * (log(PMNOG(-1)) + 0.1200 * (log(REER(-1))) - 0.5000 * (log(PPI(-1))) - (1 - 0.5000) * (log(WPG(-1) / NEER(-1)))) + 0.1600 PMS / PMS(-1) = PMNOG / PMNOG(-1) PINV = 100 * BV / INV ' Investment deflator (residual from national accounts) PIF = (GDPMPS - GCEPS - PCONSPS - DINVPS - VALPS - EXPPS + IMPPS - SDEPS) * 100 / GFCF PCDUR / PCDUR(-1) = PMNOG / PMNOG(-1) ' Mortgage rate RMORT = OPR + 1.75 PMSGVA = 100 * (MSGVAPS / MSGVA) ' ' Group 8: Commodities — Oil & Gas and Palm Oil ' ' ============================================================================ ' Malaysia is a net oil exporter (though declining) and world's 2nd largest palm oil producer ' Petronas is national oil company — upstream + downstream, dividends to government ' Oil production: ~550-600k bpd crude, ~6.8 bcf/d gas (as of 2024) ' Palm oil: ~18-19 million MT CPO, ~5% of GDP, ~5-8% of exports ' ============================================================================ ' --- Oil & Gas Sub-block --- ' Domestic oil demand dlog(TDOIL) = -0.2200 * dlog(TDOIL(-1)) + 1.6500 * dlog(NNOILGVA(-1)) - 0.0900 * (log(PBRENT / (NEER * (GDPMPS(-1) - INDIRTAXPS(-1) - (OILGVA(-1) * PBRENT(-1) / (OILBASE * NEER(-1)))) / NNOILGVA(-1) ) ) - log(PBRENT(-1) / (NEER(-1) * (GDPMPS(-2) - INDIRTAXPS(-2) - (OILGVA(-2) * PBRENT(-2) / (OILBASE * NEER(-2)))) / NNOILGVA(-2) ) ) ) - 0.0120 - 0.1800 * (@recode(@date = @dateval("1998:01") , 1 , 0) - @recode(@date = @dateval("1998:02") , 1 , 0)) + 0.1500 * (@recode(@date = @dateval("2010:03") , 1 , 0) - @recode(@date = @dateval("2010:04") , 1 , 0)) - 0.2800 * @recode(@date = @dateval("2020:02") , 1 , 0) ' Oil imports (net importer of crude for refining, net exporter of products) MOIL = TDOIL + XOILGAS - OILGVA ' Oil & gas export prices (track Brent/Asian marker) dlog(PXOILGAS) = dlog(PBRENT) - dlog(NEER) dlog(PMOIL) = dlog(PXOILGAS) ' Petronas contribution to GDP (oil & gas value added) OILGTP / OILGTP(-1) = (OILGVA / OILGVA(-1) ) * (PBRENT / PBRENT(-1)) / (NEER / NEER(-1)) ' --- Palm Oil Sub-block --- ' CPO production (seasonal, weather-dependent, biological cycle ~3 years) dlog(CPOPROD) = 0.0080 + 0.2500 * dlog(CPOPROD(-1)) - 0.1500 * dlog(CPOPROD(-4)) + 0.0350 * dlog(HARAREA) - 0.0200 * ELNINO - 0.0650 * @recode(@date = @dateval("2020:02") , 1 , 0) ' CPO export volume XCPO = 0.65 * CPOPROD ' CPO export price (world CPO price in RM terms, net of export duty) PXCPO = PCPO / NEER * (1 - CPODRATE) ' CPO domestic price (tracks world price with wedge from domestic mandates) dlog(DCPO) = 0.8500 * dlog(PCPO / NEER) + 0.0250 ' Palm oil contribution to GDP CPOGVA / CPOGVA(-1) = (CPOPROD / CPOPROD(-1)) * 0.7000 + 0.3000 * (PCPO / PCPO(-1)) / (NEER / NEER(-1)) ' Combined commodity GVA COMGVA = OILGVA + CPOGVA ' Total commodity exports XCOMPS = (PXOILGAS / 100) * XOILGAS + (PXCPO / 100) * XCPO ' ' Group 9: Government Expenditure (BNM-style) ' ' ============================================================================ ' Malaysian federal government expenditure follows BNM classification: ' Operating Expenditure (OE): emoluments, debt service, subsidies, grants, supplies ' Development Expenditure (DE): economic, social, security, general admin ' Public sector includes: Federal Govt, State Govts, Statutory Bodies, NFPEs ' ============================================================================ ' --- Operating Expenditure --- ' Emoluments (largest OE component ~35% of OE, ~1.6 million civil servants) GOVWS = GWADJ * ERGOV * EGOV * (52 / 4000) * (1 + (1.200 * EMPSC / WFP)) ' Supplies and services GOVSUP / GOVSUP(-1) = PGDP / PGDP(-1) * 1.02 ' Debt service charges (interest on government debt ~15% of revenue) GOVDSC = GOVDSC(-1) * (AVGBR / AVGBR(-1)) * (GOVDEBT / GOVDEBT(-1)) ' Base (non-fuel, non-cash-transfer) subsidies — agriculture, utilities, food price stabilisation GOVSUB_BASE / GOVSUB_BASE(-1) = PGDP / PGDP(-1) * 1.02 ' Average borrowing rate on government debt (weighted MGS curve) AVGBR = 0.70 * MGS10 + 0.30 * (OPR + 0.50) ' Subsidies and social assistance (important — fuel subsidies, BR1M/BSH, food subsidies) ' Fuel subsidies vary with oil price: higher when Brent > administered price GOVSUB = GOVSUB_BASE + FUELSUB + BSHTRF ' Fuel subsidy (RON95/diesel gap to market price * subsidised volume) ' Under the current baseline, PADMINPRICE should be interpreted as the BUDI95 subsidised RON95 price ' and FUELCONS as quota/eligibility-adjusted subsidised fuel consumption rather than total national use. ' A fuller implementation can split total fuel demand into: ' FUELCONS_ELIG = eligible BUDI95 consumption within quota ' FUELCONS_FLOAT = non-eligible or above-quota consumption ' PADMINCONSUMER = weighted average of subsidised and floating prices used for CPI/administered inflation FUELSUB = MAX(0 , (PBRENT / NEER - PADMINPRICE) * FUELCONS * 0.001) ' BSH/STR cash transfers (indexed to CPI, population) BSHTRF / BSHTRF(-1) = CPI / CPI(-1) * POP15 / POP15(-1) ' Grants and transfers to state governments GOVGRANT / GOVGRANT(-1) = GOVREV / GOVREV(-1) ' Pensions and gratuities GOVPEN / GOVPEN(-1) = GOVWS / GOVWS(-1) * 1.015 ' Other operating expenditure (refunds, write-offs, miscellaneous) GOVOTR / GOVOTR(-1) = PGDP / PGDP(-1) ' Total operating expenditure GOVOE = GOVWS + GOVSUP + GOVDSC + GOVSUB + GOVGRANT + GOVPEN + GOVOTR ' --- Development Expenditure --- ' Development expenditure (public investment — ~4-5% of GDP) ' Follows 5-year Malaysia Plan cycles GOVDEVPS = GOVDEVPS(-1) * PGDP / PGDP(-1) * (1 + DEVGR) ' Total government expenditure GOVEXP = GOVOE + GOVDEVPS ' Government consumption expenditure (national accounts basis) GCEPS = GOVWS + GOVSUP + DEPGOV GOVCDEF = 100 * GCEPS / GCE dlog(GCE) = 0.0006 + 0.3500 * dlog(GCEPS) + 0.1600 * dlog(GCEPS(-1)) - 0.3800 * dlog(GCE(-1)) ' ' Group 10: Government Revenue (BNM-style) ' ' ============================================================================ ' Malaysian federal revenue structure: ' Tax revenue (~75-80%): Direct taxes (income, petroleum income, RPGT, stamp duty) ' Indirect taxes (SST, excise, import/export duties) ' Non-tax revenue (~20-25%): Petronas dividend, investment income, fees, licences ' ============================================================================ ' --- Direct Taxes --- ' Individual income tax (~25% of tax revenue) ' Progressive rates 0-30%, threshold RM5,000 TYIND = TYIND(-1) * (WFP / WFP(-1)) * (1 + 0.5 * (d(LFSUR) / LFSUR(-1))) ' Corporate income tax (~22% of tax revenue, rate 24%) ' Corporate tax adjustment factor (allowances, incentives, pioneer status etc.) TYCADJ = 0.70 ' Financial intermediation services indirectly measured (FISIM) ' Spread between lending and deposit rates times loan stock FISIMPS = (ALR - RDEP) / 100 * CREDIT * 0.25 TYCORP = TCORP * (FYCPR + FISIMPS) * TYCADJ ' Petroleum income tax (PITA — 38% rate on upstream profits) TYPETRO = 0.38 * PETPROF ' Petronas upstream profits (function of oil/gas production and prices) PETPROF = OILGVA * (PBRENT / NEER) / OILBASE * PETMARG ' Real property gains tax TRPGT / TRPGT(-1) = PRP / PRP(-1) * GDPMPS / GDPMPS(-1) ' Stamp duty TSTAMP / TSTAMP(-1) = GDPMPS / GDPMPS(-1) ' Total direct taxes TDIRTAX = TYIND + TYCORP + TYPETRO + TRPGT + TSTAMP + TOTHER ' --- Indirect Taxes --- ' Sales and Service Tax (SST — replaced GST in Sept 2018) ' Sales tax: 5%/10% on manufactured goods; Service tax: 6% on prescribed services ' Note: GST at 6% was in effect April 2015 to May 2018 TSST = SSTRATE * (PCONSPS + 0.3 * GCEPS) * SSTADJ ' Excise duties (vehicles, alcohol, tobacco, sugar tax) TEXCISE / TEXCISE(-1) = PCONSPS / PCONSPS(-1) ' Import duties TIMPORT / TIMPORT(-1) = IMPPS / IMPPS(-1) ' Export duties (mainly on crude palm oil — sliding scale) TEXPORT = CPODRATE * (PXCPO / 100) * XCPO ' Total indirect taxes TINDTAX = TSST + TEXCISE + TIMPORT + TEXPORT + TLEVIES ' --- Non-Tax Revenue --- ' Petronas dividend (~RM25-35bn pa, ~20% of total revenue) ' Linked to Petronas profits but subject to policy decisions PETDIV = PETDIV(-1) * (0.5 + 0.5 * (PETPROF / PETPROF(-1))) ' Investment income (Khazanah, EPF returns to government, KWAP) GOVINVI / GOVINVI(-1) = GDPMPS / GDPMPS(-1) ' Licences, permits, fees GOVFEES / GOVFEES(-1) = GDPMPS / GDPMPS(-1) ' Total non-tax revenue NONTAXREV = PETDIV + GOVINVI + GOVFEES + GOVOREV ' --- Total Government Revenue --- GOVREV = TDIRTAX + TINDTAX + NONTAXREV ' Indirect taxes for national accounts INDIRTAX = TINDTAX - TEXPORT + GOVSUB_BASE INDIRTAXPS = INDIRTAX TXRATEBASE = ((@elem(INDIRTAXPS , "2015Q1") / @elem(GVA , "2015Q1")) + (@elem(INDIRTAXPS , "2015Q2") / @elem(GVA , "2015Q2")) + (@elem(INDIRTAXPS , "2015Q3") / @elem(GVA , "2015Q3")) + (@elem(INDIRTAXPS , "2015Q4") / @elem(GVA , "2015Q4"))) / 4 ' ' Group 11: Balance of Payments ' ' ============================================================================ ' Malaysia: managed float exchange rate since 2005 (de-pegged from USD) ' BNM manages ringgit through intervention, reserves ~USD115bn ' Current account persistent surplus (narrowing trend) ' Large FDI stock, significant portfolio investment flows ' Income deficit due to profit repatriation by MNCs ' ============================================================================ ' Nominal effective exchange rate NEER = NEER(-1) * REER / REER(-1) * CPI / CPI(-1) / (WCPI / WCPI(-1)) ' Bilateral USD/MYR rate RMYR = RMYR(-1) * NEER(-1) / NEER ' International reserves d(DRES) = 0 SRES = -DRES + (1 + 0.30 * (NEER(-1) / NEER - 1)) * SRES(-1) ' Income credits (investment income from abroad) CIPD = ( 0.6800 * CIPD(-1) / FLIAB(-2) + (1 - 0.6800) * REXC / 100 ) * FLIAB(-1) REXC = (DLFDI(-1) / FLIAB(-1)) * (1.50 + 2.20 * (log(WEQPR) - log(WEQPR(-4))) + 0.45 * OPR / 4) + (EQFLI(-1) / FLIAB(-1)) * (0.50 + 0.20 * ( log(WEQPR) - log(WEQPR(-4)))) + (BFLI(-1) / FLIAB(-1)) * (0.35 + 0.90 * (MGS10 / 4)) + (OTFLI(-1) / FLIAB(-1)) * (0.10 + 0.70 * OPR / 4) ' Income debits (profit repatriation — Malaysia has large FDI stock) DIPD = (0.5800 * DIPD(-1) / FASSET(-2) + (1 - 0.5800) * REXD / 100) * FASSET(-1) REXD = (DAFDI(-1) / FASSET(-1)) * (0.80 + 2.80 * FYCPR / GDPMPS) + (EQFA(-1) / FASSET(-1)) * (0.65 + 12.00 * NDIVHH / EQHH) + (BFA(-1) / FASSET(-1)) * (0.30 + 1.10 * MGS10 / 4) + (OTFA(-1) / FASSET(-1)) * (0.20 + 0.15 * OPR / 4 + 0.60 * ROCB / 4) ' Net primary income NIPD = CIPD - DIPD ' Workers' remittances (Malaysia is net outflow — foreign workers remit ~RM30bn pa) dlog(REMITOUT) = 0.4500 * dlog(EFOR) + 0.3500 * dlog(EARN) - 0.0800 * dlog(NEER) + 0.0050 ' Remittances received (diaspora, much smaller than outflows) REMITIN / REMITIN(-1) = GDPMPS / GDPMPS(-1) REMITNET = REMITIN - REMITOUT ' Government transfers (net international transfers — typically small) GOVTRAN / GOVTRAN(-1) = GDPMPS / GDPMPS(-1) ' Secondary income (transfers) TRANB = REMITNET + GOVTRAN ' Trade balance TB = EXPPS - IMPPS ' Current account CB = TB + NIPD + TRANB CBPCNT = (CB / GDPMPS) * 100 ' Capital account (typically small for Malaysia) KAPACCT = 0 ' Financial account net (FDI + portfolio + other) NAFROW = -(CB + KAPACCT) ' ' Group 12: Public Sector Totals ' ' ============================================================================ ' Malaysian fiscal framework: ' Federal government fiscal balance = Revenue - Operating Expenditure - Development Expenditure ' Debt ceiling: 65% of GDP (raised from 60% during COVID) ' Primary balance excludes debt service charges ' ============================================================================ ' Government capital depreciation (linked to government capital stock growth) DEPGOV / DEPGOV(-1) = GOVDEVPS / GOVDEVPS(-1) ' Depreciation / consumption of fixed capital DEP = DEPGOV ' Government fiscal balance GOVBAL = GOVREV - GOVEXP GOVBALCY = GOVBAL ' Government fiscal balance as % of GDP GOVBALPCNT = 100 * GOVBAL / GDPMPS ' Primary balance (excl. debt service) PRIBAL = GOVBAL + GOVDSC PRIBALPCNT = 100 * PRIBAL / GDPMPS ' Government debt accumulation d(GOVDEBT) = -GOVBAL + GOVDEBTADJ ' Government debt as % of GDP DEBTPCNT = 100 * GOVDEBT / GDPMPS ' Public sector net investment GOVNI = GOVDEVPS + DINVGOV + NPAGOV + KGOV + ASSETSA ' Total public sector spending (BNM definition) TPSE = GOVOE + DEP + GOVNI ' ' Group 13: Monetary Policy ' ' ============================================================================ ' BNM Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) — primary instrument ' OPR corridor: +-25bps around OPR ' Transmission: OPR -> money market rates -> BLR/BR -> lending/deposit rates ' BNM inflation targeting framework (flexible, no explicit target band) ' ============================================================================ ' Base lending rate / base rate (follows OPR with markup) BLR = OPR + 2.25 ' Average lending rate ALR = 0.85 * BLR + 0.15 * (OPR + 1.50) ' Deposit rate RDEP = OPR - 0.50 ' MGS 10-year yield (government bond) d(MGS10) = 0.7200 * d(OPR) - 0.2500 * (MGS10(-1) - 0.8500 * OPR(-1) - 0.1500 * UST10(-1) - 1.8500) + 0.1200 * d(UST10) ' Corporate bond rate (AA-rated) RCORP = MGS10 + 1.20 ' Rate on corporate bonds (broader measure including lower-rated) ROCB = MGS10 + 1.80 ' ' Group 14: Domestic Financial Sector ' ' ============================================================================ ' Malaysian financial system: bank-dominated (~55% of total assets) ' EPF (Employees Provident Fund) — mandatory savings, ~RM1 trillion AUM ' Household debt ~84% of GDP (high by regional standards) ' Bursa Malaysia market cap ~RM1.8 trillion ' ============================================================================ d(BLR) = 0.7200 * d(OPR) - 0.2500 * (BLR(-1) - 0.8500 * OPR(-1) - 2.2500) dlog(EQPR) = dlog(GDPMPS) dlog(M1) = dlog(GDPMPS) M3 = DEPHH + M3BUS + M3OFI ' ' Group 15: Income Account ' ' ============================================================================ ' Household income: wages, mixed income (self-employed ~25% of workforce), ' property income, transfers (BR1M/BSH), EPF withdrawals ' Corporate income: gross operating surplus less Petronas ' ============================================================================ WFP = ADJW * PSAVEI * (EMS - ESLFS) + (52 / 4000) * GWADJ * ERGOV * EGOV MI / MI(-1) = WFP / WFP(-1) ' Employer insurance/social contributions (private sector) EMPISC / EMPISC(-1) = WFP / WFP(-1) EMPSC = EMPISC + SOCSO + EMPEPF FYEMP = WFP + EMPSC ' Social security (SOCSO/PERKESO) SOCSO / SOCSO(-1) = WFP / WFP(-1) ' EPF contributions (employer: 12-13%, employee: 11%) EMPEPF / EMPEPF(-1) = WFP / WFP(-1) ' Household operating surplus (imputed rent on owner-occupied housing) OSHH = 0.06 * GPW ' Household property income received (dividends, interest, EPF returns) NDIVHH / NDIVHH(-1) = FYCPR / FYCPR(-1) PIRHH = NDIVHH + 0.04 * DEPHH + 0.03 * EPFHH ' Household property income paid (interest on mortgages and consumer debt) PIPHH = (RMORT / 100) * LHP * 0.25 + (ALR / 100) * OLPE * 0.25 ' Household disposable income HHDI = MI + FYEMP - EMPSC - TYWHH + SBHH + (PIRHH - PIPHH) + OSHH + REMITNET RHHDI = 100 * HHDI / PCPI ' Other social benefits (self-employed social security etc.) OSB / OSB(-1) = PCPI / PCPI(-1) * POP15 / POP15(-1) ' Government subsidies to households (direct cash transfers portion) GOVSUB_HH = 0.40 * BSHTRF ' Government pensions to households GOVPEN_HH = 0.85 * GOVPEN ' SOCSO benefits paid to households SOCSO_BEN / SOCSO_BEN(-1) = SOCSO / SOCSO(-1) ' Social benefits to households (BR1M/BSH, pensions, SOCSO benefits) SBHH = EMPISC + OSB + GOVSUB_HH + GOVPEN_HH + SOCSO_BEN TYWHH = TYIND + TRPGT + TSTAMP ' Household savings SVHH = HHDI - PCONSPS ' Savings ratio (Malaysia: volatile, ~1% household but ~27% gross national) SY = 100 * SVHH / HHDI ' Corporate profits (non-Petronas) FYCPR = OS - OSHH - OSGOV - OILGTP - CPOGTP ' Gross trading profits of firms GTPFC = FYCPR - COMGTP COMGTP = OILGTP + CPOGTP ' CPO gross trading profits CPOGTP / CPOGTP(-1) = (CPOGVA / CPOGVA(-1)) * (PCPO / PCPO(-1)) / (NEER / NEER(-1)) ' ' Group 16: Gross Domestic Product ' ' ============================================================================ ' Malaysia GDP by expenditure: ' GDPM = C + G + I + dINV + X - M + SDE ' Base year 2015 for constant prices ' GDP ~RM1.8 trillion (2024) ' ============================================================================ TFEPS = GCEPS + PCONSPS + DINVPS + VALPS + GFCFPS + EXPPS SDEPS = PGDP * SDE / 100 GDPMPS = TFEPS - IMPPS + SDEPS INDIRTAXPS = INDIRTAX GVAPS = GDPMPS - INDIRTAXPS TFE = GCE + PCONS + DINV + VAL + GFCF + EXP ' Basic prices adjustment (taxes on products less subsidies on products) BPA = INDIRTAX GVA = GDPM - BPA PGVA = 100 * GVAPS / GVA PGDP = 100 * GDPMPS / GDPM ' Statistical discrepancy on income side (exogenous, typically small) SDI = SDI(-1) ' Government operating surplus (imputed rent on government buildings etc.) OSGOV = 100 + DEPGOV ' Operating surplus OS = GDPMPS - FYEMP - MI - INDIRTAXPS - SDI ' Output gap GAP = GDPM / TRGDP * 100 - 100 GDPPC = GDPM / POPAL TRGDPPC = TRGDP / POPAL ' ' Market Sector GVA Satellite ' GGVAPS = GOVWS + OSGOV MSGVAPS = GVAPS - GGVAPS GGVA / GGVA(-1) = GCE / GCE(-1) MSGVA = GVA - GGVA ' Non-oil GVA (important for BNM — headline vs non-oil GDP) NNOILGVA = GVA - OILGVA NNOILGDP = GDPM - OILGVA ' ' Group 17: Financial Account and Balance Sheet ' ' --- Households --- NAFHH = SVHH - DINVHH - VALHH - IHHPS + KGHH ' Household financial assets (deposits dominate — EPF, ASB, bank deposits) d(DEPHH) = 3.5000 * d(PCONSPS) + exp(4.8000 * (RDEP - OPR)) - exp(4.8000 * (RDEP(-1) - OPR(-1))) - 0.0320 * (DEPHH(-1) - 5.2000 * PCONSPS(-1) - exp(0.8000 * RDEP(-1)) + 180000) ' EPF accumulation (mandatory ~24% of salary) d(EPFHH) = 0.24 * WFP - EPFWDRAW ' Net acquisition of equity by households NAEQHH = 0.05 * SVHH EQHH = (1 + 0.80 * (EQPR / EQPR(-1) - 1) + 0.20 * ((WEQPR / WEQPR(-1)) / (REER / REER(-1)) - 1)) * EQHH(-1) + NAEQHH ' Other household assets (unit trusts, insurance, ASB/ASN) OAHH / OAHH(-1) = GDPMPS / GDPMPS(-1) GFWPE = DEPHH + EQHH + EPFHH + OAHH ' Household liabilities (high at ~84% of GDP — mortgages ~60%, auto ~15%, personal ~10%) ' Housing loans d(LHP) = LHP(-1) * (0.0650 + 0.3800 * dlog(PRP) - 0.0180 * d(RMORT) - 0.0080 * d(LFSUR)) ' Other personal debt (hire purchase, personal loans, credit cards) OLPE / OLPE(-1) = PCONSPS / PCONSPS(-1) * (1 - 0.15 * d(BLR)) ' Total household debt HHDEBT = LHP + OLPE HHDEBTRATIO = 100 * HHDEBT / GDPMPS ' Net financial wealth NFWPE = GFWPE - LHP - OLPE ' Property wealth proxy GPW = 0.9950 * GPW(-1) * PRP / PRP(-1) + 0.001 * IHHPS ' ' --- Rest of World --- ' External balance sheet (IIP) d(FASSET) = d(DAFDI) + d(EQFA) + d(BFA) + d(OTFA) d(FLIAB) = d(DLFDI) + d(EQFLI) + d(BFLI) + d(OTFLI) d(NIIP) = d(FLIAB) + d(SRES) - d(FASSET) ' ' ============================================================================ ' VARIABLE GLOSSARY (Key Malaysia-specific variables) ' ============================================================================ ' ' NATIONAL ACCOUNTS ' GDPM = GDP at constant (2015) prices ' GDPMPS = GDP at current prices (RM millions) ' PCONS = Private consumption at constant prices ' GCE = Government consumption expenditure at constant prices ' GFCF = Gross fixed capital formation at constant prices ' EXP = Exports of goods and services at constant prices ' IMP = Imports of goods and services at constant prices ' DINV = Change in inventories at constant prices ' SDE = Statistical discrepancy at constant prices ' VAL = Valuables at constant prices ' ' PRICES ' CPI = Consumer Price Index (2015=100) ' CPIX = CPI excluding administered items ' PADMIN = Administered price index ' PPI = Producer Price Index (2015=100) ' PCPI = Private consumption deflator ' PGDP = GDP deflator ' PIF = GFCF deflator ' PRP = House price index ' PCPO = World CPO price (RM/tonne, FOB Malaysia) ' PBRENT = Brent crude oil price (USD/barrel) ' ' MONETARY/FINANCIAL ' OPR = BNM Overnight Policy Rate (%) ' BLR = Base lending rate (%) ' ALR = Average lending rate (%) ' RDEP = Average deposit rate (%) ' RMORT = Average mortgage rate (%) ' MGS10 = 10-year Malaysian Government Securities yield (%) ' UST10 = US 10-year Treasury yield (%) ' NEER = Nominal effective exchange rate index ' REER = Real effective exchange rate index ' RMYR = USD/MYR exchange rate ' CREDIT = Total bank credit to private sector ' M1, M3 = Money supply aggregates ' EQPR = Bursa Malaysia equity price index (KLCI) ' ' LABOUR MARKET ' ET = Total employment (thousands) ' ETLFS = Total employment (Labour Force Survey basis) ' EMS = Market sector employment ' EGOV = Government sector employment ' EFOR = Foreign workers ' ESLFS = Self-employed (Labour Force Survey) ' POP15 = Population aged 15 and over (working age) ' WAP = Working age population ' PART15 = Labour force participation rate (%) ' LFSUR = Unemployment rate (%) ' HWA = Total hours worked ' AVH = Average hours worked ' EARN = Average earnings ' PRODH = Labour productivity (output per hour) ' ' FISCAL ' GOVREV = Federal government total revenue ' GOVOE = Operating expenditure ' GOVDEVPS = Development expenditure ' GOVEXP = Total expenditure ' GOVBAL = Fiscal balance ' GOVDEBT = Federal government debt ' TYIND = Individual income tax ' TYCORP = Corporate income tax ' TYPETRO = Petroleum income tax ' TSST = Sales and Service Tax ' PETDIV = Petronas dividend ' GOVSUB = Subsidies and transfers ' FUELSUB = Fuel subsidies ' BSHTRF = BSH/STR cash transfers ' ' COMMODITIES ' OILGVA = Oil and gas value added ' CPOPROD = Crude palm oil production (MT) ' CPOGVA = Palm oil sector value added ' XCPO = CPO export volume ' XOILGAS = Oil and gas export volume ' COMGVA = Total commodity GVA ' CPODRATE = CPO export duty rate ' HARAREA = Oil palm harvested area ' ELNINO = El Nino dummy (1 = El Nino year) ' PETPROF = Petronas upstream profits ' PETMARG = Petronas profit margin ' ' TRADE ' XEE = E&E (electrical & electronics) exports ' XS = Services exports ' XNOG = Other goods exports ' MNOG = Non-oil goods imports ' MS = Services imports ' MOIL = Oil imports ' WSTD = World semiconductor trade index ' WTOUR = World tourism demand index ' WPG = World price of goods ' WCPI = World CPI ' ' BALANCE OF PAYMENTS ' TB = Trade balance ' CB = Current account balance ' NIPD = Net primary income ' REMITNET = Net remittances ' TRANB = Secondary income balance ' NIIP = Net international investment position ' FASSET = Foreign assets ' FLIAB = Foreign liabilities ' SRES = Official reserve assets ' ' HOUSEHOLD BALANCE SHEET ' DEPHH = Household deposits ' EQHH = Household equity holdings ' EPFHH = EPF balances (households) ' GFWPE = Gross financial wealth ' NFWPE = Net financial wealth ' LHP = Housing loan portfolio ' OLPE = Other personal loans/liabilities ' HHDEBT = Total household debt ' GPW = Gross property wealth ' ' ADDITIONAL ENDOGENOUS VARIABLES ' PDINV = Inventory deflator (= PGDP) ' DISCO = Discount rate for tax depreciation (= MGS10/100) ' FISIMPS = Financial intermediation services indirectly measured ' TYCADJ = Corporate tax adjustment factor (allowances, pioneer status) ' PXEE = E&E export price deflator ' ROCB = Rate on corporate bonds (broad) ' AVGBR = Average borrowing rate on government debt ' DEPGOV = Government capital depreciation ' OSGOV = Government operating surplus ' GOVSUB_BASE = Base subsidies (non-fuel, non-cash-transfer) ' GOVOTR = Other operating expenditure ' EMPISC = Employer insurance/social contributions (private) ' OSHH = Household operating surplus (imputed rent) ' PIRHH = Household property income received ' PIPHH = Household property income paid ' NDIVHH = Household dividend income ' OSB = Other social benefits ' GOVSUB_HH = Government subsidies to households (cash transfer portion) ' GOVPEN_HH = Government pensions to households ' SOCSO_BEN = SOCSO benefits paid ' NAEQHH = Net acquisition of equity by households ' OAHH = Other household assets (unit trusts, ASB/ASN) ' ALAD = Alignment adjustment on inventories ' NPAGOV = Net purchase of non-produced assets (government) ' KGOV = Capital transfers by government ' ASSETSA = Asset sales adjustment ' PUBI = Public enterprise investment ' PUBIPS = Public enterprise investment (current prices) ' REMITIN = Remittances received ' GOVTRAN = Net government international transfers ' KAPACCT = Capital account balance ' ' EXTERNAL VARIABLES (Exogenous) ' PBRENT = Brent crude oil price (USD/bbl) ' PCPO = CPO price (RM/tonne) ' WEQPR = World equity price index ' WSTD = World semiconductor trade demand ' WTOUR = World tourism demand ' WPG = World price of goods ' WCPI = World CPI ' UST10 = US Treasury 10-year yield ' REER = Real effective exchange rate (BNM index) ' ELNINO = El Nino indicator ' TRGDP = Trend/potential GDP ' OPR = BNM Overnight Policy Rate (policy instrument) ' PADMINPRICE = Administered fuel retail price (RM/litre) ' SSTRATE = SST effective rate ' DEVGR = Development expenditure real growth rate (policy) ' CPODRATE = CPO export duty rate (policy) ' FUELCONS = Fuel consumption volume (exogenous) ' EPFWDRAW = EPF withdrawals (policy variable) ' POPAL = Total population ' ADJW = Wage adjustment factor ' GWADJ = Government wage adjustment ' ERGOV = Government average earnings ratio ' MCCI = Malaysian Consumer Confidence Index ' IIB, SIB = Initial/subsequent investment allowance rates ' NDIV = Dividend yield ' PETMARG = Petronas profit margin ' SSTADJ = SST collection efficiency adjustment ' TLEVIES = Other tax levies ' TOTHER = Other direct taxes ' GOVOREV = Other non-tax revenue ' CREDIT = Total bank credit to private sector ' KGHH = Capital gains/transfers to households ' VALHH = Valuables held by households ' IHHPS = Household investment (current prices) ' SDI = Statistical discrepancy (income) ' ' ============================================================================ ' END OF MODEL ' ============================================================================